2. “International Peacekeeping and Micro-foundations for Positive Peace” (with Sam Whitt), 2015, Journal of Conflict Resolution
3. “Social Norms after Conflict Exposure and Victimization by Violence” (with Sam Whitt), 2016, British Journal of Political Science , pp. 1–17.
5. “Unintended media effects in a conflict environment: Serbian radio and Croatian nationalism” with Stefano DellaVigna, Ruben Enikolopov, Maria Petrova, and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, American Economic Journals: Applied Economics; 6(3): 103132; [Online Appendix]
6. A History of Violence: Field Evidence on Trauma, Discounting and Present Bias” (with Alex Imas and Michael Kuhn), Under Review
The extent to which an individual discounts the future and whether they discount in a time-consistent fashion is an important determinant of their life outcome. Using a novel study design in a field experiment in the Democratic Republic of Congo, we show that direct exposure to violence substantially increases present bias. We also demonstrate that providing individuals with a delay between information about the choice and the choice itself mitigates the differences in behavior between those who were exposed to violence and those who were not. Our findings suggest that enforcing a cooling off period between income notification and consumption opportunities may help generate more patient choices and mitigate the elevated impulsivity of individuals that have experienced violence. We measure our treatment effects both in reduced-form as well as in the form of structural estimates of a quasi-hyperbolic discounting function to enable comparison with measures of other types of time inconsistency and a welfare evaluation of the treatment effect. Our results have implications for policy aimed at alleviating the deleterious effects of present bias and the role of deliberation in the structure of commitment contracts.
7. “Minority Status and Investment: Evidence from Natural and Lab Experiments in Bosnia and Herzegovina” (with Yegor Lazarev), Under Review
This study explores how minority status influences individual decisions about investment in a post-conflict society. The study is based on multiple sources of evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina. First, we exploit an exogenous imposition of minority and majority positions by an as-if random adjustment of an administrative boundary and analyze household and business surveys. Second, we run a “lab-in-the field” experiment. The analysis shows that both actual and experimentally induced minority statuses are associated with lower levels of investment. Evidence suggests the perception of discrimination by the government, and not actual discrimination, as the plausible cause of such behavior. Several implications follow: emergence and persistence of segregated ethnic businesses, underinvestment and a basis for horizontal inter-group inequality that could increase the probability of a conflict.
“Voices of Syria”
Funding: Harvard Law School (Program on Negotiations), Harvard Next Generation Grant and National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Fight or Flight in Civil War? Evidence from Rebel-Controlled Syria (with Sam Whitt and Loubna Mrie) Under Review
Faced with prospects of a civil war escalating on their doorstep, ordinary people must decide whether to take up arms and join the fight, to stay in place and seek shelter in confines of the conflict zone, or to flee their homes in search of safer locations. Using original survey and experimental data from the ongoing conflict in Syria, we try to understand how people facing conflict make critical life-and-death decisions. Drawing on a range of hypotheses from the existing literature, we find compelling evidence that in-group ties and grievance motivations explain fight vs. flight decision-making at the individual level. Using well-balanced samples of over 300 Free Syrian Army and Islamist fighters, civilian non-combatants, and externally displaced refugees from actively contested regions of Syria, we observe that people with strong in-group bonds and out-group aversions are more likely to stay and fight. In contrast, refugees are far less revenge-seeking and more willing to negotiate for peace. Overall, our research suggests that heterogeneous preferences and motivations within subpopulations of civil war participants can create serious coordination problems with practical implications for conflict duration and outcomes.
Grievances and Role Differentiation in Civil War: Micro-Level Evidence from Syria (with Sam Whitt), Under Review
Recent macro-level studies have revived interest in grievance-based explanations for civil war participation. Using original survey data from the ongoing conflict in Syria, we examine whether fighters, civilians, and refugees can be distinguished based on a number of proxies for personal, sectarian, and regime-based grievances at the micro-level. Based on a well-balanced sample of over 300 active rebel fighters, civilians from within the conflict zone, and externally displaced refugees, we observe that some proxies for grievances are elevated among active combatants. Our results speak to the plausible role of grievances in differentiating combatants from non-combatants during civil war. We also evaluate a potential psychological mechanism where grievances drive individuals to discount risks of fighting out of a desire for agency and empowerment on one hand and anger, hatred, and revenge-seeking on the other, and we find some evidence in favor of both.
Risk Tolerance during Conflict: Evidence from Aleppo, Syria (with Sam Whitt), Under Review, Supplementary Appendix
We examine risk preferences among rebel combatants and civilians in Aleppo Syria using a variation of the Eckel-Grossman Risk Game. Field work in Syria was conducted in 2013 with a total 232 participants to include both Syrian civilians and active rebel fighters. Compared to Syrians in other locations, people in rebel-held territory of Aleppo are significantly more risk tolerant. We consider plausible explanations for elevated risk preferences in Aleppo based on self-selection, adaptive learning, future prospects, grievances, and social solidarity. We find that risk tolerance is most clearly mediated by optimist wishful thinking about the present and future. This suggests that a strong sense of self-efficacy may explain higher propensity for risk-taking. Overall, our results speak to plausible sorting mechanisms during conflict where risk averse individuals self-select out of conflict, while highly risk tolerant individuals are more prone to discount the inherent dangers of remaining in conflict zones.
Altruism and Violence (with Sam Whitt and Rick Wilson) Under Review
Our research examines in-group and inter-group social norms between civilians and combatants using behavioral experiments. We examine how conflict affects a basic norm of altruism toward identifiable in-groups and out-groups during a period of ongoing violence.
Mentioned English: Vice News, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, NPR, The Atlantic, American Interest, Council on Foreign Relations, The Baltimore Sun, U-T San Diego, ArmyTimes, NavyTimes, Voice of America, HKS PolicyCast, CBC/Radio-Canada (Canada), Harvard Gazzette, Political Violence at a Glance blog, The Duck of Minerva blog, Syria in Crises blog and Syria Comment blog; Russian: Novaya Gazeta, Vedomosti ; Kurdish: Awene
November 2014 Summary Statistics for Ex-Fighters in Turkey and Syria
August 2014 Summary Statistics for Islamists in Syria
April 2014 Summary Statistics for Ex-Fighters in Turkey
February 2014 Summary Statistics for Aleppo and Idlib
“Crisis in Ukraine”
From the Maidan to the Military: Mobilizing Civilians for Counter-Insurgency in Eastern Ukraine (with Sam Whitt), R&R British Journal of Political Science, Supplementary Appendix
In the aftermath of the 2014 Euromaidan protests, the Ukrainian government initiated a widespread campaign to mobilize young men for military service to counter separatist movements in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine amid escalating tensions with Russia. In July 2014, we survey young men who were volunteering to join the Ukrainian military’s counter-insurgency efforts and compare them to other young men who live in the same community but had not volunteered. We find strong linkages between prior Euromaidan activism and military mobilization. A heightened sense of self-efficacy, risk tolerance, and support for violence helps explain the transition to increasingly higher cost, higher risk forms of collective action.
August 2014 : Summary Statistics for Civilians and Fighters